THE COMING RENAISSANCE OF 2050
When technology does things we humans don’t want to do, find too dangerous to do, or solve problems we’re not smart enough to solve, will we enter a scientific and cultural rebirth?
Richard Fouts
During the industrial age we learned to make things. Then came the quality movement which taught us to make things better. Now, in the connected age, we make things that work together. These however, are no ordinary things. When enabled with artificial intelligence, data science and sensors, things become able to make decisions based on changes in the environment and in the events that are happening around them (e.g., the autonomous vehicle).
WHEN HUMANS AND MACHINES COOPERATE
Over the next 20 to 30 years, we will say goodbye to the mundane, leaving our robots and virtual assistants to conduct those things we find dull, repetitive or messy. But unlike previous eras, that modeled intra-technology relationships as master/slave, we will think of these bots as equal anthropomorphized, family members, even office mates that work by our side giving us advice, recommendations — even emotional support.
These bots (a term we’ll use to refer to robots and virtual assistants) don’t just automate work that was done by humans, they often supplant the human altogether. Bots:
>> Remember things we forget and gladly volunteer to do things we disdain. They act as cheer leaders when we’re down and propel us forward when we’re at our most productive.
>> Know us at an excruciating level of detail (which is their only job) as they recommend who we date, suggest hobbies we’ll love — and vacations we’ll be inclined to enjoy.
>> Are programmed to be emotionally available (which gives them personalities) which in turn encourages us to give them names. Debates regularly arise about their civil rights.
BOTS DON’T ARGUE WITH US (THOUGH THEY MIGHT NAG US A BIT)
If our bots get too intrusive they profusely apologize or volunteer to self-adjust their filters. In many ways, they are equal members of our inner circle. When we remark: “We can’t live without them,” we’re not kidding.
>> In home and family life, robots care for our aging grandparents, clean the house and take us (and the kids) where we want to go. They track our commitments (while relieving us of many) and let us know when a task is best performed by us (or other humans). Living a day without them would be challenging, if not impossible.
>> Bots tell us anything we want to know. Our virtual assistants are with us 24/7 to retrieve the information we need, when we need it. At the office, we collaborate with bots to allocate manufacturing and marketing tasks between the bot and human workforce. When we leave for home, our bots continue to work on our behalf because they aren’t satisfied until they’ve achieved maximum productivity. The word “waste” has become largely extinct.
>> Male-female roles are interchangeable as women run mega-corporations and men stay at home with the kids. The same trend has spilled into fashion which is entirely unisex and doesn’t discern men/women sizing options.
A NEW BOTFORCE
In 2050 smart machines have taken over manufacturing, assembling, inspecting, packaging and distribution. As humans, we watch out for problems and crush any issues that get in the way to assure our bots perform optimally. Mechanical problems never occur thanks to bots that have been dedicated to predictive maintenance.
Some bots even take on a role of boss, helping workers manage their tasks while suggesting real-time adjustments to optimize results. When our personal performance improves, the resultant emotional rewards make it tough to “hate the boss.”
Our customers also interact with our bot-enabled workforce. In the future, we have given the often-unpleasant (usually tedious) task of customer service to bots (which have already reduced the CSR workforce). Buyers in our target markets expect our robots and virtual assistants to be acutely sensitive to their needs. While our customers could previously discern us from our bots, they aren’t so sure anymore. But, they don’t really care as long as their problem goes away.
Leaps in quantum computing. Innovation in sheer computer power has propelled the development of deep neural network (DNN) models, leading to breakthroughs in the management of renewable energy sources, healthcare and food production. Combine this with increased deployment of deep-learning models, and the production of food and other replenishables become highly affordable (which could signal the end of poverty and a reduction in global population growth).
Global weather patterns have become even harder to predict. Sea levels have risen and temperatures have grown hotter. Negative environmental impacts have created new economic opportunities — seized by clever startups that are combating climate change. Now, entrepreneurs steer us away from food sources that negatively impact the environment thanks to advances in food cloning. The resulting foods not only taste good — they are environmentally neutral. The consumption of insects and synthetic meat is also common.
LONGER, MORE PRODUCTIVE LIVES AT HOME AND WORK
In 2050, smart machines in healthcare have revealed the root cause of most diseases. Genetic engineering has either reduced their seriousness or has eliminated them. We live longer, productive lives given advances in deep-learning models.
We employ autonomous vehicles and robots for hazardous work, which dramatically reduces workforce injury and costs while boosting productivity. The cost of running a business has also sharply declined since healthcare is a basic service provided to all citizens.
Clean, renewable energy sources, including wind, solar and wave energy have been widely deployed, offloading the need for a long-distance energy grid. Many residents don’t purchase energy at all since their homes are self-sufficient.
HIGH JOB SATISFACTION IS THE NORM
Tasks we find necessary, but unrewarding, have largely been eliminated as we direct our actions to business areas of higher strategic value (such as custom, individualized services). Self-actualization has moved down the Maslow hierarchy of needs (perhaps even replaced with the pursuit of nirvana).
Smart machines have become particularly good at generating insight and advice to improve business performance. Countries that were previously at a technological disadvantage (due to cost) regularly deploy bots thanks to breakthroughs in economies of scale. All countries have started to relegate jobs that are unpleasant or highly dangerous to robots, which has improved worker safety. Some businesses have more bots than humans (since bots are able to deliver trusted results just as well, if not more effective, than humans).
BUSINESS COMPETES IN NEW WAYS
In 2050, competition is more intense than ever given technology has leveled the playing field in many sectors, particularly financial services. Data has become a commodity. Executives no longer differentiate with super-efficient, data-driven enterprises.
A new era of smart machines has also introduced new risk types. Cyber espionage is more common as competitors have no shame in stealing sensitive information (such as models and algorithms). Some bots inadvertently commit crimes which has lawyers and judges scratching their heads as they struggle to devise the right legal strategies and rulings.
Brand loyalty is nearly gone. Buyers get instant access to variable prices and differentiated feature information. Even as virtual assistants and robots become more integral to modern lifestyles, many laggards still refuse to adopt them. Such organizations are in decline (many have already failed).
Everyone travels globally. It’s not uncommon for people to work all over the world as sub-orbital flight, solar-powered planes, and drone-airliners become the norm. Traditional hub airports have higher utilization rates as vertiports, helioports, high-speed trains, and regional short-distance flights interconnect with other means of transportation.
Virtual is barely discernable from real. Zoom’s holographic features make virtual seem real. In personal entertainment, people bring hit musicals right into their living rooms as holographic actors become more common.
THE SINGULARITY IS HERE
In 2050, the acceleration of human-machine singularity (as coined by Ray Kurzweil) is extending human life expectancy while improving life quality. Some smart machines are programmed and designed to build even more advanced machines including the underlying software to manage them.
Computers are all around us. Our buildings and homes are embedded with microphones, speakers and sensors making access to virtual assistants readily available from anywhere and everywhere, both at work and at home. Our devices, everyday appliances, homes, offices and self-driving vehicles are managed through conversational interfaces.
Some automobiles have become travelling offices. Now, we conduct business as we travel to our next appointment. Micro-projection technology enables on-the-fly presentations or the ability to watch films and other entertainment on any qualifying surface.
Virtual and augmented reality are pervasive in training and education. Innovation in technology delivers a more natural way to learn. Holographic technology is used to project virtual assistants which makes them appear more real. In fact, bots may be made to resemble the people they’ve become.
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN PLACE BY 2035
It will hardly take 30 years for all of this to begin. Over the next 15 years, AI, data science and smart machines will generate insight from data that has become digitally visible for the first time in human history — to solve problems that have evaded us for centuries. Technology will also be used to address some of the negative issues its created.
HOW WILL YOUR BUSINESS SEIZE THE DAY?
Think cobots versus robots. Industrial robots, that we see at organizations such as Tesla, will begin to morph into cobots. As a result, executives should begin to consider how they’ll deploy bots that are easily programmed, mobile, and adaptable to dynamic usage models. Business leaders from all sectors and in organizations of all sizes should construct plans for a hybrid workforce where bots extend human capabilities (it’s not too early to start discerning tasks that need the creativity and experience of the human workforce from those that can be assumed by cobots).
Don’t be shy about collaborating with machines. Today’s chatbots will start to be supplanted by virtual assistants that learn from observation, hence are proactive versus reactive. As virtual assistants mature as equal, contributing members of the workforce they will suggest resources we may not even be aware of as they track and monitor human-assigned tasks and deadlines. For now, start planning for the day when all teams in your workforce will include those that are virtual. Start to consider how you’ll balance humans and virtual workers across work groups to optimize productivity.
It’s about the business model, stupid. We are already on the verge of an era where product differentiation is becoming less of a competitive weapon as AI inspires business models that propel new startup ideas, largely from innovative algorithms that model data in ways that deliver breakthrough efficiencies. In the future, success will be dependent more on models the business builds versus the data it controls. Data’s commoditization will also encourage business leaders to expand their repositories with more data that originates outside the business. Expect data scientists to add more anonymized data to large datasets to better train DNN models. You should also expect Insights derived from data outside the corporate four walls to become more valuable. Avoid reidentification in datasets.
Conversational interfaces will soon become the norm. Breakthroughs in conversational and holographic technology will deliver more human-like emotions to our devices. Hence, users will increasingly anthropomorphize both virtual assistants and robots. Even if they don’t confuse the two in the short term, bots and humans will become increasingly difficult to discern in the future as robots and virtual assistants solve problems and make recommendations within the context of their user’s emotional state. Hence, start including sentiment analysis technology in your deployments of virtual assistants and robots. Assume conversational technology will continue its rapid advancement (meaning, expect lots of iterations as you deploy it).
